Products

Data Individualized to the Voter l Deliver the right message to the right voter

Custom Audiences l Target the most potent voters that need to hear from you

Persuasion Scores l Continuously updated models on all relevant political issues

Unregistered Data l Sourced 50 million unregistered to expand the electorate

PredictWise Data

PredictWise data tracks the opinions, attitudes, and behaviors (location data, media consumption) of more than 260 million Americans through a mix of telemetry data(passively sourced cell-phone data) and survey data. This unique combination of data ensures best in class accuracy through 1) Using a mix of demographic and geographic data: PredictWise has collected hundreds of thousands of respondents reporting party identification and models voters through survey, mobile data, and location data compiled through mobile devices; 2) PW provides a rank order cut, to ensure that its targets are the most likely to respond to the correct messaging or are the most definite voters for your campaign to turnout.

Additionally, PredictWise’s database includes verified data on 50 Million+ unregistered voters, sourced through credit files and portal registration data (e.g. Crate&Barrel), and is carefully purged of duplicates or registered voters, updating daily. PredictWise (PW) machine learning models predict the party of unregistered based on survey respondents from hundreds of thousands of Americans and can apply support scores to turnout your electorate. PredictWise unregistered data includes signals and data collected from cell phones such as media consumption and location data.

How It Works

PredictWise has created scores on 13 issue preference clusters and 7 value-frame, or psychometric clusters. All clusters are scored using more than 350,000 survey respondents and more than 30 Million behavioral data points. On the survey side, we model scores on clusters via a Bayesian latent variable model, developed by PredictWise, of the components in any given cluster. The multi-item measures and the strong signal from more than 30 Million data points increase the accuracy of these models far beyond typical support models. We then project the model coefficients onto the voter file, using, amongst other features, individual-level covariates: age, gender, race, education, party identification, household type, urbanicity based on cell-phone ambient data, and location. We make full use of the probability models on the file, ensuring that each individual will get a score reflecting his or her exact position. The end result is a continuous score for each cluster ranging from 0 to 100 for every American represented on the file. All scalars are scaled to mean ~ 50, sd ~ 20, and we recommend a rank-order-based (as opposed to a cardinal) interpretation of raw scores.

“PredictWise has built a unique solution that allows for novel ways of looking at voters. Customers will be able to make decisions in innovative ways and be more effective in their political and issue outreach” – Tom Bonier, CEO of TargetSmart

Signal by PredictWise – Data Dashboard Putting Data at your Fingertips

PredictWise developed a dashboard that enables campaigns to build scalable customized audiences based on real-world behaviors and attitudes that track sentiment on the economy, political issues, and value frames for over three years from all 250 million adult U.S. voters. The data is compiled through real-time locations, application usage, and media consumption layered on top of surveys and available raw data. PredictWise extrapolates every record to a proprietary device ID-voter file rather than the “offline”file based on name and address. The dashboard puts at your fingertips the most up-to-date and continuous data in the business. To explore the Signal dashboard, request (here).

PW Case Study #1 – Persuasion is Back: Katie Porter Custom Audience

The political landscape knows Rep. Katie Porter as its progressive champion in Congress, but what many people don’t know is that she hails from a very moderate district in California. In fact, prior to her winning the seat, the 45th congressional district had been held by a Republican for 65 years. In 2018, PredictWise was called upon to create a custom audience to communicate and move likely voters that would support Porter.

By looking at trends over time and our most recent survey and behavioral data, PredictWise identified a significant number of voters that exhibited a progressive position, as well as tolerance toward the Democratic party but had soft support for the Republican candidate. These voters were ripe for wedge appeals.

The result – PredictWise audiences generated 2-4 times greater lift in crucial return metrics such as video play-throughs and comments, producing further significant margins on engagements per dollar and video plays per dollar. Thus, the right voters were seeing her digital ads and driving her message at a better cost point.

PW Case Study #2 – Increasing Digital Yield: Ohio Supreme Court

Presidential election years make it difficult for campaigns to cut through the advertising from the top-of-the-ticket and the many super PACs supporting the campaign. This is especially difficult for court races, even those running for the top court in a state, the Supreme Court. In 2020, PredictWise was asked to build a custom digital audience that would increase digital yield using programmatic ads. The opponents of PredictWise’s client had ruled poorly on a victims’ rights issue capping damages. By looking at PredictWise persuasion scoring, we developed a universe of nearly 1 million likely voters who could be persuaded by the issue and matched nearly 900,000 voters within the audience of having at least one digital identifier.

The result - Due to customization and a warning being placed on the ads, nearly 80% of the custom audience watched the digital ad in its entity. The client went on to win the Supreme Court election and was the only red-to-blue flip in a Trump won state in 2020, but more importantly, creates a block to overturning recent redistricting reforms made by citizens.

PW Case Study #3 – Real-time Data, PredictWise Covid-19 Score

It doesn’t take a data scientist to know that Covid-19 was going to play a major role in the 2020 election. This once in a lifetime pandemic took control of the political debate, our airways, and ultimately our lives. PredictWise understood that there were potential pockets of voters to target with Covid-19 messaging and turned high-dimensional data covering over 100 million Americans into measures of adherence to Covid-19 restrictions during deep lockdown. PredictWise targeted Republicans who scored high on our measure of Covid-19 decree violation (folks who were on the go more often than their neighbors) and Republicans who scored low on our measure of Covid-19 decree violation (folks who mostly or always stayed at home) in the swing state, Ohio, and asked survey questions. This measure derived from ground truth, real-time, ultra-granular locations patterns that analyzed nearly 2 billion GPS pings for this study. PredictWise found that Republican non-movers’ (compliers) concern around Covid-19 and persuadability was almost as high as Democrats overall and Republican non-movers over the age of 65 were more concerned about Covid-19 than Democrats.

The result – the Arizona Dems Coordinated Campaign in support of now U.S. Senator Mark Kelly was able to deploy this real-time location model to open up just over 40,000 persuasion targets that normally would have fallen off, allowing them to give the right message to the right voter at the right time.

2020 PredictWise Client List