PredictWise Blog

Indian Elections Game

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I am stoked to introduce a new game that was developed at Microsoft Research for the Indian Elections. The game is easy to find at aka.ms/elections and provides the ability to wager on any of the states in the upcoming Indian elections. The game will produce the most accurate predictions of the Indian elections by allowing the crowd to input their idiosyncratic knowledge of the different parties in the different states through their wagers and an extremely robust market maker aggregate those wagers. Just a few of the cool features:

1) Ranges: all bets are on ranges of seats for a given party in a given state. Or they are on the combinations of ranges for multiple parties in a given state.

2) Combinatorial: it is a fully combinatorial system so that every time you pick a range it affects all of the other possible outcomes, not just for that party in that state, but all parties across all states.

So, if you have some knowledge of the Indian elections, please give a try.

NCAA Tourney Wrap-up

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Previous Posts: Likelihood of Winning, Game by Game, First Round, Second Round (Day 1), Second Round (Day 2), Third Round (Day 1), Third Round (Day 2), Calibration, Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, Final Four

The NCAA predictions were well calibrated. We had an average likleihood of victory over the 67 games of 71% for the favored team. That team won 69% of the games. This is the chart you want to see for anyone who does predictions. It shows the predictions bucketed together and the percent that came true:

Final Four

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There are a few things you need to know about the Final Four

1) Florida (1) out of South is about 75% to beat Connecticut (7) out of East.

2) Amazingly, Kentucky (8) out of Midwest is about 51% to beat Wisconsin (2) out of West. For those that do not follow college basketball closely the fact that Kentucky is 8th in their region and (slightly) favorite to win should be surprising. But, Kentucky takes advantage of a peculiar policy of the NBA that does not let high school seniors jump directly to making money, but forces them to wait until they are 19 and/or played 1 year of high school basketball. Some schools are reluctant to take advantage of the rule and "enroll" players who will go to the NBA after one season, but not Kentucky. Thus, will a team full of freshman, they have the talent, but not necessarily the cohesion early in the season. Thus, the bad start and the low seed, but the strong run.

4) Full list of static, pre-game predictions.

5) Full list of real-time updating predictions. These are updating about every 2-3 minutes. I apologize in advance for any real-time quirks!

Elite Eight

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There are a few things you need to know about the Elite Eight:

1) I told you we would get 5 of 8 games right (in the binary sense) in the Sweet Sixteen and we did. If only we knew which 5 it would be we would have gotten 8 of 8 game right! Of course, those were some tight games. We had Michigan (2) has our main upset watch and they pull it out by 2 points over Tennessee (11). And we had Louisville (1) carrying the rivalry game against Kentucky (8), but they lost a tight one 74 to 69. That being said, we were happy to see Michigan St. (4) beat Virginia (1) as expected and Arizona (1) handle San Diego St.. Going into the Elite 8 we have 3 of 4 pre-tournament Final Four teams still alive: Michigan St. (4), Florida (1), and Arizona (1).

2) Florida (1) is a heavy favorite over Dayton (11). Arizona (1) is a tighter favorite over Wisconsin (2).

3) For tomorrow's games Michigan St. (4) is going to be a heavy favorite over Connecticut (7) and Kentucky (8) will be a slight favorite over Michigan (7).

4) Full list of static, pre-game predictions.

5) Full list of real-time updating predictions. These are updating about every 2-3 minutes. I apologize in advance for any real-time quirks!

Sweet Sixteen

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There are a few things you need to know about Sweet Sixteen:

1) The favored team has an average likelihood of victory of just 61% in the Sweet Sixteen. This means we only expect to get about 5 of 8 games right (in the binary sense). We have been extremely well calibrated so far this tourney, so expect an interesting Sweet Sixteen. But, not all games are equally uncertain ...

2) Virginia, the top ranked team in the East, if favored to lose. Not by much, but Michigan State (4) is 52% to win the game against Virginia (1). That is the only game where we have the lower ranked team actually more likely to win the game.

3) Florida (1) in South, Arizona (1) in West, and Louisville (4) in Midwest, our other pre-tournament favorites to get to the Final Four (along with Michigan State in the East), are all favored with between 65% and 75%. To single out the Louisville and Kentucky game, Louisville is as highly likely at 68% to beat the surging Kentucky squad.

4) The other for games are all relatively close, with the most interesting to me being Tennessee (11) as 47% to knock of Michigan (2) in the Midwest.

5) Full list of static, pre-game predictions.

6) Full list of real-time updating predictions. These are updating about every 2-3 minutes. I apologize in advance for any real-time quirks!