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Articles & Mentions

• When you hear the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. Think 7 instead.  October 5, 2016 on New York Times (by David)

• We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results.  September 20, 2016 on New York Times

• Why the Whole Trump-Clinton Election Could Probably Just Be Held in Pennsylvania  September 16, 2016 on New York Times (extensive Q&A with me)

• Ranking the 2016 Presidential Primary Polls and Predictions  June 29, 2016 on Bloomberg

• How Microsoft Helped ESPN With Its Top 100 All-Time NBA Rankings Podcast on February 22, 2016 on Tech Times

• From data collection to data analytics to data consumption Video on August 24, 2015 on Microsoft Research

• 5 Q’s for David Rothschild, Economist at Microsoft Research July 20, 2015 on Center for Data Innovation

• Microsoft came remarkably close to predicting all 24 Oscar winners February 23, 2015 on Engadget

• Microsoft’s version of ‘Nate Silver’ dishes out data-backed predictions for 2014 December 26, 2013 on Geek Wire

• Predicting Oscar Winners Podcast on February 22, 2013 on NPR’s On the Media

• The science of predicting Oscar winners Video on February 21, 2013 on Reuters TV

• Big Data Versus Little Data: Predicting the Academy Awards Podcast on February 21, 2013 on IEEE Spectrum

• And the Oscar Goes to … February 13, 2013 on MSR

• Obama Expected to Win Ohio, Say YouGov/Xbox Poll Respondents November 2, 2012 on Time

• A Better Poll Question: Who Do You Think Will Win? November 1, 2012 on New York Times

• Forget the polls, Obama is still winning: PredictWise – The Trail Video on October 19, 2012 on Reuters TV

• Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets October 12, 2012 on PBS NewsHour

• Political Polls, Professors and Election Markets Predict the Presidential Race Video on October 12, 2012 on PBS NewsHour

• Microsoft Researcher Predicts Obama to Win Podcast on October 3, 2012 on IEEE Spectrum

• ’12 Campaign: Predicting the U.S. Election September 26, 2012 on MSR

Research

• Combining Forecasts for Elections: Accurate, relevant, and timely

• Fundamental Models for Forecasting Elections w/ Patrick Hummel

• A comparison of forecasting methods: fundamentals, polling, prediction markets, and experts w/ Deepak Pathak and Miroslav Dudik

• Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and their Biases

• Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations w/ Justin Wolfers

• Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level w/ Patrick Hummel

• The Extent of Price Misalignment in Prediction Markets w/ David Pennock

• Forecasting elections with non-representative polls w/ Wei Wang, Andrew Gelman, and Sharad Goel

• A Combinatorial Prediction Market for the U.S. Elections w/ Miroslav Dudik, Sebastien Lahaie, and David Pennock

Op-eds

• What Americans Mean When They Talk About “Populism”. Buzzfeed February 17, 2017

• This Poll Shows A Lot Of Republicans Like Ivanka — And So Do 22% Of Democrats. Buzzfeed February 16, 2017

• Trump and the GOP Have Massively Unpopular Tax Policies. Slate November 30, 2016

• New poll: 30% of Trump supporters say they’ll protest the election if he loses. Washington Post November 8, 2016

• Chasing Electoral Ghosts: We looked at 130 million ballots from the 2012 election and

• found practically zero evidence of fraud.. Slate November 7, 2016

• Hillary Clinton would win in Australia, New Zealand, England, Canada, France, Mexico and Germany. But not Russia.. Washington Post November 7, 2016

• ‘It Really Does Get Into Your Head.’ The Election Through the Eyes of Teenage Girls. New York Times November 4, 2016 (written by Claire Cain Miller)

• Preparing for Future: Smartphone Only Polling. Huffington Post October 30, 2016

• Poll: 60% of Republicans believe illegal immigrants vote; 43% believe people vote using dead people’s names. Washington Post October 24, 2016

• Will Republican voters flee Trump, post-video? Here’s what we found.. Washington Post October 14, 2016

• When you hear the margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent. Think 7instead. New York Times October 5, 2016

• All polls are non-probability to varying degrees. Huffington Post September 7, 2016

• Innovative, Interesting New Poll Has Some Problems. Huffington Post August 22, 2016

• There’s No Evidence Of The ‘Bradley Effect’ In Trump Polls. Huffington Post August 17, 2016

• Why you shouldn’t be fooled by polling bounces. Slate August 5, 2016

• Quick Take: solid convention bounce for Clinton. Huffington Post July 30, 2016

• Who cares about free trade? Not many Americans, it turns out.. Washington Post July 29, 2016

• Something’s Odd About the Political Betting Markets. Slate July 11, 2016

• Guns And Immigration: Critical Wedge Issues Of 2016. Huffington Post July 9, 2016

• Brexit: leave voters relatively unfazed by currency collapse. Huffington Post July 1, 2016

• Before you get surgery, check this evidence: Less-invasive treatments work better. Washington Post, June 30, 2016

• Four keys for predicting whether Britain will leave the European Union. Washington Post, June 22, 2016

• Financial expectations of Brexit for UK voters. Huffington Post, June 22, 2016

• There is no “Trump Bump” in the polls — just a growing lead for the Democrats. Washington Post, June 7, 2016

• New polls show that more Americans prefer Democrats’ policies. Washington Post, May 27, 2016

• Be Careful What You Wish For: Trump Has A 30 Percent Chance To Win Presidency. Huffington Post, May 4, 2016

• Will it be Clinton or Trump in November? Here’s what’s wrong with most predictions. Washington Post, May 3, 2016

• Trump Goes from Lead to Command of GOP Nomination. Huffington Post, April 27, 2016

• We did the math. Cruz was smart to campaign in a Bronx district with almost no Republican voters. Washington Post, April 19, 2016.

• Donald Trump Is Still The Most Likely Republican Candidate. Huffington Post, April 17, 2016

• Democratic Nominee (Whomever That Is) Still Strong. Huffington Post, April 6, 2016

• The prediction markets were right about Tuesday’s primaries. So what do they say about November?. Washington Post, March 17, 2016

• Trump is closer to what most Republicans believe than the ‘establishment’ candidates are. Washington Post, March 6, 2016