Politics

2016 Presidential Election - Likelihood of Republican Nomination

This page is driven entirely by FantasyScotus data. Step 1: calculate the percent of people expecting the case to be affirmed. Step 2: we took historical data and created coefficients for the relationship between percent of people expected affirmation, expected justices affirming from crowd, and expected justices affirming from algorithm. We will update this a bit in the next few weeks as more cases are resolved. Step 3: apply those coefficients. Step 4: round to nearest percentage point, so 0% and 100% do not really mean 0.000% and 100.000%, but <0.5% and >99.5%. For more details on the cases please visit the New York Times.

Supreme Court 2014-2015

2016 Presidential Election - Likelihood of Republican Nomination - Raw Data

2016 Presidential Election - Likelihood of Democratic Nomination - Raw Data

Market data: Step 1: construct prices from the back, lay, and last transaction odds, in the Betfair/PredictIt order book. We take the average of the highest price traders are willing to buy a marginal share and the lowest price people are willing to sell a marginal share, unless the differential is too large or does not exist. Step 2: correct for historical bias and increased uncertainty in constructed prices near $0 or $1. We raise all of the constructed prices to a pre-set value depending on the domain. Step 3: normalized to equal 100% for any mutually exclusive set of outcomes.

2015 Greek Exit from Eurozone

The Israeli parliament (Knesset) electeons are March 17, 2015.

2015 Israeli Parliament Election - Prime Minister

2014 Louisiana Senate: Cassidy vs. Landrieu

This page is not meant for general distrbution, but just a check on both RC and HP's aggregating polling.

Huffington Post Pollster v. RealClearPolitics

Editing ... back up in a few minutes!

2014 House - Likelihood of Victory for Democratic Candidate - Election Night

2014 Senate - Likelihood of Victory for Democratic Candidate - Election Night

2014 Governor - Likelihood of Victory for Democratic Candidate - Election Night