Results & Papers
In an effort to provide transparency, we plan to eventually display the results of all of our past predictions and provide a system that measures our accuracy. In the meantime, here are the results of some of our more notable recent predictions, and a tool that allows you to view how those predictions evolved over time.
Here are some key papers for reference. Please visit ResearchDMR.com for additional research and more about David Rothschild's work.
Forecasting Elections: Comparing Prediction Markets, Polls, and their Biases Public Opinion Quarterly. 2009. Vol. 73, No. 5, pp 895-916.
Forecasting Elections: Voter Intentions versus Expectations with Justin Wolfers. This Draft: November 1, 2012.
Combining Forecasts: Accuracy and Timeliness. This Draft: July 21, 2012.
Fundamental Models for Forecasting Elections with Patrick Hummel. Email for Copy of Paper.
The Extent of Price Misalignment in Prediction Markets with David Pennock. Email for Copy of Paper.
Predicting Oscar Winners Podcast on Friday, February 22 on NPR's On the Media
The science of predicting Oscar winners Video on Thursday, February 21 on Reuters TV
Big Data Versus Little Data: Predicting the Academy Awards Podcast on Thursday, February 21 on IEEE Spectrum
And the Oscar Goes to …Wednesday, February 13 on MSR
Obama Expected to Win Ohio, Say YouGov/Xbox Poll Respondents Friday, November 2 on Time
A Better Poll Question: Who Do You Think Will Win? Thursday, November 1 on New York Times
Forget the polls, Obama is still winning: PredictWise - The Trail Video on Friday, October 19 on Reuters TV
Why the President Is Still a Heavy Favorite on the Prediction Markets Friday, October 12 on PBS NewsHour
Political Polls, Professors and Election Markets Predict the Presidential Race Video on Friday, October 12 on PBS NewsHour
Microsoft Researcher Predicts Obama to Win Podcast on Wednesday, October 3 on IEEE Spectrum
’12 Campaign: Predicting the U.S. ElectionWednesday, September 26 on MSR