2016 President - Winner

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Market data: Step 1: construct prices from the back, lay, and last transaction odds, in the Betfair/PredictIt/Hypermind order book. We take the average of the highest price traders are willing to buy a marginal share and the lowest price people are willing to sell a marginal share, unless the differential is too large or does not exist. Step 2: correct for historical bias and increased uncertainty in constructed prices near $0 or $1. We raise all of the constructed prices to a pre-set value depending on the domain. Step 3: normalized to equal 100% for any mutually exclusive set of outcomes.

Since IEM is selling on the popular vote, not the winner of the Electoral College, it is ignored in this aggregation (more detail click here).

Polling data: Courtesy of HuffPost's Pollster

Bookie data: Lowest price I could find to buy that contract (current on 11/8/2014 12:00 PM ET). Will update weekly, but this is bookie data only - everything else is live!!!

Want some insight on the values? Research at ResearchDMR or email David directly.

2016 President - Winner (Party)

2016 Presidential Election - Winner (Individual)

2016 President - Winner (Party) - Raw Data

2016 Presidential Election - Winner (Individual) - Raw Data