PredictWise Blog

World Cup Day 6: USA! USA! USA! (part 2)

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Today’s Games: The predictions are in for a pretty boring Tuesday; but there is always hope for a surprise, that is why they play the games! The final group, group H, plays today with Belgium 74% heavy favorites over Algeria 8% with 18% to draw. And, Russia 53% is a strong favorite over South Korea 20% with 27% to draw. Brazil 74% plays its second round robin match against Mexico 9% with 17% to draw. With just one draw in the first 14 games my bold prediction is not for an upset, but for a draw!

Yesterday’s Games: Yesterday was an exciting day for USA and group G! With Portugal losing 4-0 to Germany and the USA winning 2-1 against Ghana, USA is now in the driver’s seat for the second spot in group G. Germany is a virtual lock to advance. USA needs to either win one of their two other games, tie both of their two other games, or tie Portugal to guarantee advancing. A tie against Germany gives them just over 50% to advance.

Overall View: Germany looked very strong yesterday and guaranteed themselves advancement from a difficult group. They are a few percentage points more likely to win the tournament than they were on Monday morning.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.

World Cup Day 5: USA! USA! USA!

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Today’s Games: USA! USA! USA! The hometown team takes the pitch for the first of their three group G matches today against their longtime rival Ghana. The USA enters the match as a slight underdog at 32% to win, Ghana 40%, and 28% for a draw. The winner of this match will have a very legitimate likelihood of advancing, needing just a draw (in expectation) in one of their two other matches. The other group G teams are Portugal 24% against Germany 50% with 26% for a draw. Group F’s other match is Iran 21% against Nigeria 51% with 28% for that elusive first draw of the World Cup. The winner of the Iran and Nigeria match will be in good shape to advance from a weak group F.

Yesterday’s Games: No surprises yesterday with Switzerland winning the tight game against Ecuador. France and Argentina both won as expected (although Argentina was not exactly overwhelming with their 2-1 victory).

Overall View: Not much movement on the likely winner of the tournament.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.

World Cup Day 4: When will the scoring stop?

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Today’s Games: There are three games today and the early prediction is that they will not be as thrilling as yesterday! In the opening match for Group E Switzerland 41% is playing Ecuador 28% with 31% for that first draw of the World Cup. The other Group E matchup is France 75% and Honduras 7% with 18% for a draw. France is heavily favored to advance with the other spot going to the winner of today’s Switzerland and Ecuador match. Group F kicks off with Argentina 73% over Bosnia 9% and 18% to draw. Bosnia is actually likely to advance, even if they get crushed today, as the rest of the group is Iran and Nigeria.

Yesterday’s Games: The big surprise yesterday was Costa Rica over Uruguay. I gave that just 10% to happen. The 2-1 matches with Italy over England and Ivory Coast over Japan were as expected with both projected as near toss-ups for any outcome. And Colombia’s win was expected as well.

Overall View: Uruguay, England, and Italy entered yesterday as nearly tied in likelihood of advancing and now Italy is in the driver’s seat with England extremely likely to nab the other spot if they can beat Costa Rica. None of this had much of an effect on the likely winner of the tournament.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.

World Cup Day 3: Looking for a draw

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Today’s Games: There are four games on the docket today with Group C and D both playing their first round of their round robin. Group C kicks off with Colombia 52% against Greece 18% with a healthy 30% for a draw. This game is followed by Ivory Coast 36% and Japan 35% with another 29% for a draw. This is an incredibly tight group with Colombia slightly favored, but otherwise each team enters the group play with at least 30% likelihood of advancing. Group D features Uruguay 67% against Costa Rica 10% and 23% for a draw. But, the most anticipated game of the day is England 34% versus Italy 33% and 33% for a draw; this game is as evenly matched as they get! Amazingly I have England, Italy, and Uruguay as virtually all tied at 66% to make the round of sixteen.

Yesterday’s Games: The Mexico and Chile victories were as expected yesterday, but the blowout of the Netherlands over Spain was quite the experience. Obviously, the Dutch, 2010’s finalists, were not negligible to beat Spain, but a 5-1 thrashing was certainly a low probability event (disclaimer is that once the game gets really bad, the last few goals are not necessarily as meaningful).

Overall View: Spain is only slightly less likely to beat Chile in their head-to-head game than prior to their blowout loss. Chile itself did not look spectacular in beating the unfortunate Aussie team. But, with that win now being critical to advancement, their likelihood of advancing is now down to 50% and their likelihood of the top seed in the group is also down. Thus, it unsurprising that their likelihood of victory in the tournament is down by well over 50%. Much of their likelihood was sopped up by the Netherland, now almost assured to advance and likely to take the top position from Group B.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.

 

World Cup Day 2: Let the games begin!

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Today’s Games: There are three games on tap today with Mexico 44% versus Cameroon 25% (31% for draw) finishing out the Group A games. With Croatia losing its opening match against Brazil, Mexico is now in the driver’s seat for the second spot in Group A if they can beat Cameroon. The other two games are both Group B with a rematch of the 2010 World Cup final between Spain 53% and the Netherlands 18% (29% for draw). Today’s most likely outcome is for a repeat of the 2010 final, where Spain won 1-0. Finally, Chile 66%, expected to fight with the Netherlands for the second spot out of Group B is heavily favored over Australia 11% (23% for draw).

Yesterday’s Games: There was just one game yesterday and it went as expected with Brazil winning 3-1, but there were two key lessons. First, Brazil could lose a game; assuming they are a near lock to make it to round of sixteen they still need to win four games in a row making me very comfortable with them at 25% to win the tournament. Second, with the score tied 1-1 we got a great demonstration of the home field advantage with a very questionable penalty that favored the struggling home team Brazil.

Overall View: Nothing changed in the overall outcome based on yesterday’s game.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.