PredictWise Blog

World Cup Day 11: USA, USA, USA v. Portugal

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Today’s Games: Group G, otherwise known as USA’s group, is finishing its second round today with the USA 21% against Portugal 53% with 26% to draw. While not guaranteed, a draw would make the USA extremely likely to advance to round of sixteen. These odds are much improved for the USA following the first round of the round robin when the USA defeated Ghana and Portugal was crushed by Germany. The other games today are the two group H games with South Korea 39% to Algeria 31% with 30% for a draw. And, Belgium just 45% to Russia 26% with 29% for a draw. The Belgium team is heavily favored to advance, but it is not nearly as strong as everyone expected going into the World Cup.

Yesterday’s Games: Both Argentina and Germany were underwhelming in their second matches, but did well enough to keep moving forward. Despite losing, Iran kept its hopes of qualifying for the round of sixteen out of group F alive by only losing by 1 to Argentina.

Overall View: The biggest winner yesterday was France, who is increasingly looking like it belongs with the big three of Brazil, Germany, and Argentina.

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World Cup Day 10: Argentina and Germany come out to play …

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Today’s Games: Two of the four top teams are playing today with Germany 74% playing Ghana 9% with just 17% to draw in the USA’s group G. Germany opened strong against Portugal and a good win here would cement them as the best team in the tournament (Brazil is the favorite due to home turf, not being the best team). In group F action Argentina 86% is up against Iran 4% with 10% to draw. This is the most lopsided game we have seen all tournament. Finally, Bosnia 52% takes on Nigeria 22% with 26% to draw. The winner of this game would be in the driver’s seat for the second spot in group F.

Yesterday’s Games: England was eliminated with Cost Rica’s victory over Italy yesterday. Costa Rica is the surprise of the tournament so far. They are just 1% likely to win, but that is much more than when the World Cup started!

Overall View: France looked sharp in dismantling Switzerland, cementing them as the 4th most likely team to win behind: Brazil, Germany, and Argentina.

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World Cup Day 9: Half way there ...

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Today’s Games: England’s small chance of making to the round of sixteen hangs in the balance of today’s Italy 63% versus Costa Rica 14% game (with 23% to draw). All three teams in group D, which are not England, have 3 points and England has 0 points. A tie would eliminate England, as two teams would reach 4 points. Their best hope is a victory by Italy that would leave Italy secure and Uruguay and Costa Rica with 3 points each. Then, a big English victory over Costa Rica and an Italy victory over Uruguay could get them into the next round. The other two games are in group E with Switzerland 21% against France 52% with 27% to draw. And, Honduras 17% against Ecuador at 59% with 24% to draw. France and Switzerland are heavy favorites to advance.

Yesterday’s Games: Colombia’s victory secured it a spot in the round of sixteen and the Ivory Coast, despite its loss, is in a good position for the other spot in group C. Ivory Coast has 3 points, to 1 point for Japan and Greece, and finishes the round robin with a match against Greece. England’s loss put them in a tight spot as they watch today’s match between Italy and Costa Rica.

Overall View: Not much change at the top yesterday. Confidence in Germany continues to grow and everyone is waiting on Argentina’s second match against Nigeria to see how good they really are!

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World Cup Day 8: England

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Today’s Games: England 48% has its win or go home game today against Uruguay 26%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 26%, but England really needs a victory. Italy 64% faces Costa Rica 13% with 23% to draw tomorrow. If England does not win today, then Costa Rica will have the momentum and drive for tomorrow’s game, but if England wins, their fate will really back in their own hands. Over in group C, Colombia 48% versus Ivory Coast 25% with 27% to draw should be a good game between the two likely winners of the group. Greece 29% and Japan 43%, with 28% to draw, battle it out in the other game.

Yesterday’s Games: Spain was eliminated as Chile and the Netherlands advanced from group B. Croatia crushed Cameroon, setting up an interesting situation in group A. Croatia has 3 points and Mexico has 4 point going into their final game where Croatia is 40% to win and Mexico is 60% to either win or draw.

Overall View: It is absolutely no surprise that Germany and the Netherlands picked up what was left of Spain’s likelihood to win the World Cup.

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World Cup Day 7: Spain's Redemption (or demise)

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Today’s Games: Like yesterday, there are three games and three heavy favorites today. Group B is back in action with the Netherlands 80%, fresh off of their destruction of defending champions Spain, playing Australia 6% with just 14% for a draw. And, Spain 63%, trying to stay in the World Cup with their match versus Chile 15% (22% for draw). Spain needs to win this game in order to make it to the next round with any certainty. Interesting note here is that the likelihood of them winning this game is not changed very much from pre-World Cup. The new information of them getting crushed by the Netherlands is offset by the urgency in which they will play this game. In the second match for the second round of group A, Croatia 56% is favored over Cameroon 18% with 26% to draw. A Croatia win could keep them alive, but it would still be a difficult position as Brazil and Mexico both already have 4 points. Thus, Croatia would likely have to win against Cameroon and then Mexico.

Yesterday’s Games: Brazil tied Mexico yesterday giving Mexico the driver’s seat for the second spot in group A. Belgium looked weak in their win over Algeria, but should still qualify for the round of sixteen. Russia and South Korea tied, making the second spot in group H still up for grabs, but leaning Russia.

Overall View: Brazil’s likelihood of winning the World Cup plummeted yesterday. While they are still almost certain to advance, they need to win four games after that. And, yesterday’s game, combined with the Croatia game, showed they are vulnerable and many of the outrageous pre-World Cup predictions were too high. The four most likely remain Brazil, Argentina, Germany, and the Netherlands.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.