PredictWise Blog

World Cup Day 8: England

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Today’s Games: England 48% has its win or go home game today against Uruguay 26%. The likelihood of a draw stands at 26%, but England really needs a victory. Italy 64% faces Costa Rica 13% with 23% to draw tomorrow. If England does not win today, then Costa Rica will have the momentum and drive for tomorrow’s game, but if England wins, their fate will really back in their own hands. Over in group C, Colombia 48% versus Ivory Coast 25% with 27% to draw should be a good game between the two likely winners of the group. Greece 29% and Japan 43%, with 28% to draw, battle it out in the other game.

Yesterday’s Games: Spain was eliminated as Chile and the Netherlands advanced from group B. Croatia crushed Cameroon, setting up an interesting situation in group A. Croatia has 3 points and Mexico has 4 point going into their final game where Croatia is 40% to win and Mexico is 60% to either win or draw.

Overall View: It is absolutely no surprise that Germany and the Netherlands picked up what was left of Spain’s likelihood to win the World Cup.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game, likelihood of any team reaching any round, and today’s likely scores. Details on method and full coverage.

 

World Cup Day 7: Spain's Redemption (or demise)

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Today’s Games: Like yesterday, there are three games and three heavy favorites today. Group B is back in action with the Netherlands 80%, fresh off of their destruction of defending champions Spain, playing Australia 6% with just 14% for a draw. And, Spain 63%, trying to stay in the World Cup with their match versus Chile 15% (22% for draw). Spain needs to win this game in order to make it to the next round with any certainty. Interesting note here is that the likelihood of them winning this game is not changed very much from pre-World Cup. The new information of them getting crushed by the Netherlands is offset by the urgency in which they will play this game. In the second match for the second round of group A, Croatia 56% is favored over Cameroon 18% with 26% to draw. A Croatia win could keep them alive, but it would still be a difficult position as Brazil and Mexico both already have 4 points. Thus, Croatia would likely have to win against Cameroon and then Mexico.

Yesterday’s Games: Brazil tied Mexico yesterday giving Mexico the driver’s seat for the second spot in group A. Belgium looked weak in their win over Algeria, but should still qualify for the round of sixteen. Russia and South Korea tied, making the second spot in group H still up for grabs, but leaning Russia.

Overall View: Brazil’s likelihood of winning the World Cup plummeted yesterday. While they are still almost certain to advance, they need to win four games after that. And, yesterday’s game, combined with the Croatia game, showed they are vulnerable and many of the outrageous pre-World Cup predictions were too high. The four most likely remain Brazil, Argentina, Germany, and the Netherlands.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.

World Cup Day 6: USA! USA! USA! (part 2)

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Today’s Games: The predictions are in for a pretty boring Tuesday; but there is always hope for a surprise, that is why they play the games! The final group, group H, plays today with Belgium 74% heavy favorites over Algeria 8% with 18% to draw. And, Russia 53% is a strong favorite over South Korea 20% with 27% to draw. Brazil 74% plays its second round robin match against Mexico 9% with 17% to draw. With just one draw in the first 14 games my bold prediction is not for an upset, but for a draw!

Yesterday’s Games: Yesterday was an exciting day for USA and group G! With Portugal losing 4-0 to Germany and the USA winning 2-1 against Ghana, USA is now in the driver’s seat for the second spot in group G. Germany is a virtual lock to advance. USA needs to either win one of their two other games, tie both of their two other games, or tie Portugal to guarantee advancing. A tie against Germany gives them just over 50% to advance.

Overall View: Germany looked very strong yesterday and guaranteed themselves advancement from a difficult group. They are a few percentage points more likely to win the tournament than they were on Monday morning.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.

World Cup Day 5: USA! USA! USA!

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Today’s Games: USA! USA! USA! The hometown team takes the pitch for the first of their three group G matches today against their longtime rival Ghana. The USA enters the match as a slight underdog at 32% to win, Ghana 40%, and 28% for a draw. The winner of this match will have a very legitimate likelihood of advancing, needing just a draw (in expectation) in one of their two other matches. The other group G teams are Portugal 24% against Germany 50% with 26% for a draw. Group F’s other match is Iran 21% against Nigeria 51% with 28% for that elusive first draw of the World Cup. The winner of the Iran and Nigeria match will be in good shape to advance from a weak group F.

Yesterday’s Games: No surprises yesterday with Switzerland winning the tight game against Ecuador. France and Argentina both won as expected (although Argentina was not exactly overwhelming with their 2-1 victory).

Overall View: Not much movement on the likely winner of the tournament.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.

World Cup Day 4: When will the scoring stop?

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Today’s Games: There are three games today and the early prediction is that they will not be as thrilling as yesterday! In the opening match for Group E Switzerland 41% is playing Ecuador 28% with 31% for that first draw of the World Cup. The other Group E matchup is France 75% and Honduras 7% with 18% for a draw. France is heavily favored to advance with the other spot going to the winner of today’s Switzerland and Ecuador match. Group F kicks off with Argentina 73% over Bosnia 9% and 18% to draw. Bosnia is actually likely to advance, even if they get crushed today, as the rest of the group is Iran and Nigeria.

Yesterday’s Games: The big surprise yesterday was Costa Rica over Uruguay. I gave that just 10% to happen. The 2-1 matches with Italy over England and Ivory Coast over Japan were as expected with both projected as near toss-ups for any outcome. And Colombia’s win was expected as well.

Overall View: Uruguay, England, and Italy entered yesterday as nearly tied in likelihood of advancing and now Italy is in the driver’s seat with England extremely likely to nab the other spot if they can beat Costa Rica. None of this had much of an effect on the likely winner of the tournament.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.