PredictWise Blog

World Cup, Round 8, Day 1: Germany, France, Brazil, and Colombia

Bookmark and Share

Today’s Games: 134 years ago on July 19 France declared war on Prussia starting the ill-fated (for France) Franco-Prussian War. 100 years ago today the Archduke Ferdinand of Austria was laid to rest, one more turning of the wheel that would lead to full blow war in Europe by August 1, 1914. 74 years ago on September 1, 1939 World War II began with the German invasion of Poland; France fell on June 22, 1940. Meanwhile, today, Germany is 59% to defeat France 41%. While the French team has played well all tournament, the Germans are still a slight favorite. The later match features Brazil 69% to defeat Colombia 31%. Brazil is really benefiting from an easier draw than most, a little home field advantage, and less travel.

Yesterday’s Games: USA lost a heartbreaker to Belgium on Tuesday night. Argentina won a tight match against Switzerland.

Overall View: With the favorite teams going 8-0 in the round of 16 there is not much movement at the top.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.

World Cup, Round 16, Day 4: USA, USA, USA … USA, USA, USA!!!

Bookmark and Share

Today’s Games: USA is 36% to beat Belgium 64% at 4 PM ET today. The Belgium team was a pre-tournament favorite that has sunk in probability of winning the World Cup as they have played. They had an incredibly unimpressive 3-0-0 run in the weakest group. Pre-tournament Belgium would be a much larger favorite for this game. Argentina is 80% over Switzerland 20%. Argentina is a pre-tournament favorite which has also went a very unimpressive 3-0-0. They also had a weak group and they did not win big, but they did what they had to do and continue to be a tournament favorite. So far the favorite is 6-0 in the round of sixteen … I will be rooting for 7-1 with the underdog USA taking the lone steal. While Belgium is favored to ultimately prevail, I have the most likely outcome as 1-1 (could there be another set of shoot-outs)?!?

Yesterday’s Games: Yesterday saw favorites France and Germany both turn it on late. Germany is a slight favorite in their Friday clash.

Overall View: With the favorites continuing to roll along there is not much movement at the top. It will start to get interesting in the quarterfinals when favorite teams have to lose!

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.

World Cup, Round 16, Day 3: France and Germany

Bookmark and Share

Today’s Games: France and Germany play their round of sixteen games today and both are big favorites to advance. France 82% plays the opening match against Nigeria 18% at noon ET. France was a big mover during the group stage; while they tied Ecuador, they demolished their two other opponents, including Switzerland. The second game features Germany 88% against Algeria 12%. Germany came into the tournament as the third most likely winner and continues to look strong. They are further helped by playing Algeria, who squeaked into the round sixteen with 4 points, by beating South Korea and tying Russia.

Yesterday’s Games: Yesterday’s outcomes were as expected, but very close games! Netherlands defeated Mexico by scoring in the 88’ and 94’ minute of regulation (for you non-soccer fans the game is only 90’ long, but the game does not end until they have accounted for any time the play on the field stopped). On a personal note, it was a lot of fun watching that game in a bar in Rotterdam, Netherlands! The second game went through overtime into penalty kicks with Costa Rica, the slight favorite, prevailing over Greece. Costa Rica played down one person for about 60 minutes. The red card (or in this case two yellow cards) is one of the harshest in-game penalties in sports.

Overall View: Again, yesterday’s outcomes did not make a huge dent in the likely winner. Brazil is still most likely with about 25%, followed by Germany, Argentina, and the Netherlands. France, pending a victory today, will join the top five tomorrow.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.

World Cup, Round 16, Day 2: Netherlands and Costa Rica

Bookmark and Share

Today’s Games: The first game today feature the Netherlands 65% against Mexico 35%. The Dutch squad was reasonable favorite going into the World Cup, but pushed upward on the strength of a strong group stage of 3-0-0 against: Chile, Spain, and Australia. Mexico limped into the World Cup, but played Brazil to a draw and beat both Croatia and Cameroon. The other game is hard to predict with Costa Rica 54% the unexpected favorite against Greece 46%. Costa Rica beat Italy and Uruguay while drawing England. Greece was not nearly as successful in their group play, but the methodology continues to underestimate the extremely surprising Costa Ricans.

Yesterday’s Games: Yesterday’s outcomes were as expected. Colombia handled Uruguay, who was short the world’s most famous biter. Brazil beat Chile, of course it was much tighter than anticipated, with Brazil needing penalty kicks after tying in both regulation and over-time.

Overall View: Yesterday’s outcomes did not affect the likelihood at the top very much. Brazil continues to be buoyed by their home field advantage (which was not on display very much in a questionable handball call). They need to win just three more games, but none of them are predicted to be easy.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.

World Cup, Round 16, Day 1: Brazil and Colombia favored

Bookmark and Share

Today’s Games: There are two games today. The round of 16 kicks off the same way as the group stage with Brazil 79% over Chile 21%. Going forward I am only making probabilistic predictions on the final outcome, not on the outcome of regulation. This would be a much closer match if it were not played in Brazil; the roar of the crowd is important, but the subjectivity of the referees is much more important. The second game features Colombia 64% over Uruguay 36%. Of course, this would be a much closer match if Uruguay’s start player were not suspended for biting.

Yesterday’s Games: No games yesterday! Just the afterglow of the USA’s entry into the round of 16 on the boot of suddenly popular Ronaldo (who secured USA’s advancement by scoring on Ghana for Portugal).

Overall View: Brazil 24%, Argentina 18%, and Germany 18%, my top three teams heading into the World Cup, still look as strong expected (and still in the same rank order). The Netherlands, who started at 11th and France, who started at 6th, are the big upward movers and are now 4th and 5th. Spain was ranked 4th, which was my only team in the top 7 that did not qualify. Belgium, which rounded out my original top 5, actually fell in ranking, despite a 3-0-0 record. I now have them in 7th. Although, they are favored over USA on Tuesday.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.