DavidMRothschild on February 22, 2015 @ 12:49PM
12:06 AM ET: 20 for 24 with Birdman's win!!! Another huge victory for prediction markets. Perfectly calibrated with average 82% for most likely candidate in the 24 catagories = expected outcome of 20 wins. And, a prediction markets did a great job in raising probability of victory of Birdman to 90% as Oscar night unfolded ...
11:56 PM ET: With Actor Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) and Actress Julianne Moore (Still Alice) both winning, we are 19 for 23 with just one to go!
11:43 PM ET: The markets were increasingly convinced as the night progressed and it happend ... Birdman's Alexandro G Inarritu take the Director award! Brings us 17 of 21 with just 3 to go ...
11:35 PM ET: OK - now 16 of 20 with the Imitation Game's win for Adapted Screenplay, but another tight loss for Original Screenplay where had Grand Budapest Hotel, but Birdman second ...
11:25 PM ET: Grand Budapest Hotel for Original Score (our third loss, all reasonably probable second place choices). That brings us to 15 of 18 … now for Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Actress, Actor, Director, and Picture!
11:10 PM ET: 15 for 17 with Selma's Glory winning Song ...
11:00 PM ET: All the big awards coming up now ... interesting note is that the markets are coalescing around Birdman's Alexandro G Inarritu for Director. Boyhood's somewhat surprising loss in Film Editing could be seen as a pre-curser ...
10:51 PM ET: CitizenFour gets us back on track for Documentary Feature ... 14 of 16 overall ...
10:44 PM ET: OK - another second favorite taking it ... with Whiplash taking the Film Editing catagory. That closes out the technical catagories at 7 for 8 ... 13 for 15 overall!
10:30 PM ET: Reminder, I am highlighting the winners here based on our final Oscar predictions from 1 PM ET (13 for 14)
10:26 PM ET: And Birdman's win for Cinematography makes 13 for 14 ...
10:23 PM ET: Back on track with Grand Budapest's 3rd win in Production Design ... 12 for 13 ...
10:13 PM ET: In the crazy animation catagory, seriously no Lego Movie, we sadly fall to 11 for 12 ...
10:08 PM ET: Stoked for being 11 for 11, but amazed at being 3 for 3 in the shorts. Markets rock at aggregating information!!!
10:04 PM ET: 10 for 10 with Interstellar with their Visual Effects.
9:54 PM ET: 9 for 9 after Patricia Arquette's win for Boyhood.
9:50 PM ET: 8 for 8 is great start! Just nailed the two sound catagories with Whiplash for Mixing and American Sniper for Editing.
9:40 PM ET: Keeping the list updated here (6 for 6)
9:30 PM ET: 6 for 6, but more important 2 for 2 so far in the 3 crazy hard "short film" catagories. Congrats to Crisis Hotline Vets for best documentary short.
9:26 PM ET: 5 for 5, but more important 1 for 1 so far in the 3 crazy hard "short film" catagories. Congrats to The Phone Call for best live action short.
9:11 PM ET: Ida as foreign film brings us to 4 for 4 ... upcoming are the very difficult short films!
9:01 PM ET: Grand Budapest takes its second with makeup and hairstyling ... we ar 3 for 3.
8:58 PM ET: We are 2 for 2 with Grand Budapest Hotel winning its first for costume design. It is favored in a leading 4 catagories.
8:40 PM ET: We are live and the first Oscar is for Supporting Actor ... phew 1 for 1 ...
1 PM ET: Here are the final Oscar predictions. A few things to consider:
1) I rounded to the nearest percent. Nothing is 100%; anything that says 100% is just 99.5% or greater.
2) Market-based forecasts have been binary correct for 19 and 21 of 24 in the last two years, I expect 20 of 24.
3) If you want to win your pool tonight just pick all of the favorites. If there are many people in the pool or the pool has some other people reading this column, switch in one or two second-most likely that you want to win.
4) Birdman is favored in two key categories (Director and Picture), but nothing else. Boyhood is favored in two categories, but second in both Director and Picture. Grand Budapest if favored in four categories!
5) The prediction page will update in real-time as the event unfolds (as early awards could add information about later awards). I will blog about anything interesting on this page …
DavidMRothschild on January 12, 2015 @ 7:03AM
As promised we got 8 of 10 major movie categories binary correct at the Golden Globes. Boyhood took home its three statues, but Birdman came up short with 2 of 3 excepted wins. The surprise winners, The Grand Budapest Hotel for Best Picture (comedy or musical) and Amy Adams in Big Eyes for Best Actress (comedy or musical), were both our second most likely choices.
DavidMRothschild on January 09, 2015 @ 5:54PM
The Golden Globes are Sunday, January 11 and, as usual, we have some bold, market-based, predictions on PredictWise. The methodology for the Golden Globes is the exact same as the Oscars, which has not been previously tested out-of-sample for the Golden Globes, but we are excited to see how they do. We have predictions for 10 categories and here are our pre-event predictions:
We have the drama Boyhood looking very strong in Best Director, Best Picture (drama), and Patricia Arquette as Best Supporting Actress. We have the comedy Birdman rivaling Boyhood with a favored position in Best Picture (comedy or musical), Michael Keaton as Best Actor (comedy or musical), and Best Screenplay. Eddie Remayne leads the Best Actor (drama) category from The Theory of Everything, Julianne Moore from Sill Alice as the Best Actress (drama), Emily Blunt from Into the Woods as Best Actress (comedy or musical), and J.K. Simmons from Whiplash as Best Supporting Actor. The closest categories are Best Actress (comedy or musical) with Amy Adams from Big Eyes in a close second, and Best Screenplay with The Brand Budapest Hotel and Boyhood both challenging.
We expect to get 8 out of 10 correct with an average probability for the leading nominee at 82%. Enjoy the show and follow the live predictions here: http://www.predictwise.com/GG2015.
DavidMRothschild on November 18, 2014 @ 5:04PM
Microsoft Prediction Lab tested the wisdom of the crowd in 507 elections this fall and did pretty well (here are the posted final predictions from election eve): 33 of 35 (so far) in the U.S. Senate, 30 of 36 in the gubernatorial elections, and 419 of 435 in the U.S. House. This is in terms of binary outcomes (i.e., who won and loss), but I will get into the probabilities below.
In the senate, there were two reasonable and well calibrated “misses”. The final prediction was 61% that Greg Orman would knock off incumbent Republican Pat Roberts in the Kansas. And, 62% that incumbent Democratic senator Kay Hagan would hold off Thom Tillis in North Carolina.
In the gubernatorial elections, there were six “misses”. The final predictions had challenger, Democrat, Paul Davis overtaking incumbent Sam Brownback in Kansas with 69%. Democratic challengers, Charlie Crist (78%) and Mike Michaud (55%) both failed in their attempts in Florida over Rick Scott and in Maine over Paul LePage, respectively. Everyone missed Democrat Anthony Brown (77%) to beat Lawrence Hogan for the open seat in Maryland. Finally, Democrat Dannel Malloy was 49% to hold off Thomas Foley in Connecticut and Republican Sean Parnell was 78% to hold off Bill Walker in Alaska. These misses are consistent with the top poll-based forecasters, like Nate Silver.
The forecasts for the senatorial and gubernatorial elections were well calibrated. The average probability for the favorite in the senatorial elections was 90%; we expected 32 of 35 to be correct and got 33 of 35. In the gubernatorial election we had an average probability of 83%; we expected 30 of 36 to be correct and got 30 of 36.
With so much information available, we were not surprised to see the prediction games mirror the major poll-based forecasters, that is why the U.S. House predictions are the most exciting; 419 of 435 elections is a very strong track record! It is a little stronger than the expected 409, but we are not complaining. Of the 16 misses, 4 went Democratic and 12 went Republican. This is not so surprising in a year of Republican victories.
DavidMRothschild on November 18, 2014 @ 2:38PM
There are three main effects of the 2014 election the 2016 election. First, the Republicans are slightly more likely than before the election to capture the presidency, but the Democrats are still favored. Second, Scott Walker is much more likely to get the Republican nomination, while Jeb Bush is slightly more likely. Third, Mitt Romney is much less likely to get the Republican nomination. There is not really any effect on the Democratic nomination.
The Democratic nominee is 58% likely to win the 2016 presidential election; this is down ever so slightly from before 2014 Election Day. Presidential elections have a much larger voting pool, which is more Democratic, than midterm elections. And, I will let other people debate the motivation of the votes on Election Day 2014, but Obama will not be on the ballot in 2016.
Scott Walker shot up as the major solid, right-wing Republican during the 2014 elections. He won reelection convincingly in a Democratic state, Wisconsin. But, the key thing, is that unlike Mitt Romney or other blue state Republicans, he ran as a solid right-wing Republican.
Jeb Bush, not on the ballot, had a good day as the moderate Republican standard-bearer; that means that Mitt Romney lost the day. Another moderate Republican, Chris Christie, should be happy about Republican governors having a good day, but Jeb Bush and Scott Walker offset any of his joy.
Much more about the 2016 election in the coming months and years.