DavidMRothschild's blog

Possible error in Scottish predictions really large and likely favors NO

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Using betting market data from Betfair, I have the NO vote in the Scottish independence election at 84% to succeed. And, I can break that down:

6% for 0% to 40% of the vote for YES

26% for 40% to 45% of the vote for YES

51% for 45% to 50% of the vote for YES

12% for 50% to 55% of the vote for YES

3% for 55% to 60% of the vote for YES

2% for 60% to 100% of the vote for YES

There are two key points. First, this is a really wide range. The polls are all clustered at NO being a few points ahead, but the markets are giving 32% that NO wins by 10 percentage points or more! Second, if the polls are way off, the swing is going to favor the NO vote. Intelligent review of the polls are both surmising and determining this possibility.

Election Update - 9/17, 58 Days

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I last addressed the senate 6 days ago and there has been meaningful movement in two states. First, North Carolina has gone from leaning Democratic to strong Democratic. This is on the strength of some new polls. Second, Kansas has gone from very difficult to possible for the Democrats. That is assuming that Orman is going to caucus with the Democratic Party. This on the strength of the first polls showing the Democratic candidate basically gone and looking increasingly likely the Democratic candidate will not be on the ballot, despite the Lt. 'Governor's best efforts. It amazing to think that Kansas’ top three races: Senator, Governor, and Lt. Governor may all go Democratic.

Here is New York Times and FiveThirtyEight compared with PredictWise. Not too much difference:

Election Update - 9/12, 53 Days

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There are more interesting gubernatorial elections than senatorial elections. While the immediate national stakes do not seem as high, that is a misconception in many ways. Governors such at Wisconsin’s Scott Walker (R) is one of the most influential people in the country advocating for breaking unions,  Maine’s Paul LePage (R) is not that far behind, Kansas’ Sam Brownback (R) is the poster-child for step tax cuts and austerity (which is not going well), and Florida’s Rick Scott (R) gained fame for drug testing the poor.

NFL Week 2

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I forgot to post this yeseterday, so I am one game short!

Election Update - 9/11, 54 Days

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I launched my state-by-state senatorial and gubernatorial predictions in the first week of August. You can find them on PredictWise updating as the data updates: senatorial and gubernatorial. Most important for the senatorial elections, you can find the expected balance of power on a separate table. I hope to add the district-by-district house election by October 1.

NFL Week 1

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I am going to get this live in a few weeks with a lot more detailed game predictions. But, until I do, here are my week 1 probabilities of victory for the NFL. The predictions are primarily derived from betting markets. The home team is favored in 13 of 16 games.

World Cup Recap: Accurate and Calibrated

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The PredictWise forecasts was 15-0 in the knockouts games (0-1 in silly consolation games). It certainly was exciting to watch this unfold as the data (heavily driven by markets) endowed me with a rooting interest for all of these games (with, of course, the notable exception of the USA v. Belgium game where I was rooting hard against the data!). Below are all of the games, after the group stage, and morning forecast:

World Cup, Final: Germany for the Win

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Germany is 60% to win today over Argentina 40%. Both teams have played well enough to make it to the final. This was not much of a surprise as they were two and three going into the tournament, with semi-final loser Brazil as first. And, as noted from the beginning, Brazil was first not because they had the best team, but the home-field advantage. Argentina was slightly more favored going into the tournament than Germany for two reasons. First, they had slightly stronger fundamental data. Second, they had an easier group stage (Germany had to contend with USA, Portugal and Ghana).

For the sake of the score keeping I am going to pretend that the consolation match never happened! Seriously, why are they playing that silly match?!? With home team Brazil getting humiliated in the consolation match to Netherlands that makes us 14-0 in meaningful knockout games and 0-1 in silly consolation games.

World Cup, Consolation Game: Brazil to Rebound

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Brazil is favored at 63% over the Netherlands 37% in the consolation game today. After their disastrous loss in the semi-final game Brazil is likely to be extremely motivated to end their World Cup on a high note, while the Netherlands team, which lost their semi-final game in a shootout, is not going to be as motivated for this odd spectacle of sport!

Germany is favored in tomorrow’s final over Argentina.

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.

World Cup, Semi-Finals, Day 2: Argentina over Netherlands

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Argentina 56% is favored over the Netherlands 44% in the second semi-final match. The game starts at 4 PM ET. Argentina got an early goal against Belgium in their quarter-final and then held on 1-0. Netherlands dominated Costa Rica in their quarter-final match, but could not put the ball into the net until the shootout.

Germany destroyed Brazil in the first semi-final match 7-1 (and that 1 goal came in the 90th minute). The game was a statistical toss-up, but feeling good about yesterday’s headline of Germany over Brazil!

Updating Predictions: likelihood of any game and likelihood of any team reaching any round. Details on method and full coverage.