DavidMRothschild on March 26, 2015 @ 5:17PM
1) Of the three top seeds left, Duke is the most at risk.
2) Wichita State (7) v. Notre Dame (3) is the tighest pick with the market-based forecasets at 54% for Wichita State and the FiveThirtyEight's model at 53% for Notre Dame.
3) Two (7) seeds are favored over (3) seeds!
DavidMRothschild on March 22, 2015 @ 8:31AM
Day 3 was another day of top-seeds or expected favorites winning ... will the exception of the top seeded Villanova. This is a huge blow to the FiveThirtyEight predictions which had a big weight on Nova: a 16% likelihood of winning the tourney going into the round of 32 (12% going into the round of 64). Prediction market-based forecasts were half of that.
In the game-by-game predictions for Sunday, March 22, the market-based PredictWise forecasts are again similar to FiveThirtyEight today ... But, keep on eye on Maryland v. West Virginia where PredictWise's live predictions are ont he other side of the outcome.
DavidMRothschild on March 21, 2015 @ 9:58AM
There is only one lower seed favored to win on Day 3 of the tournament – Utah (5) is 64% over Georgetown (4) in the South. With about 75 probability on the favored teams we expect 2 of them to go down, with Notre Dame as the most likely. Number 1 seeds Villanova and Kentucky, as well as number 2 seed Arizona are all heavily favored in their games. The market-based predictions are earily similar to FiveThirtyEight today ... What the predictions move live on PredictWise here.
DavidMRothschild on March 19, 2015 @ 9:17AM
Below I compare the prediction market-based predictions on PredictWise with FiveThirtyEight’s statistical model and the New York Times’ Upshot innovative pari-mutuel betting game. First and foremost the three methods are extremely similar. In just 10 of 32 first round games are any of the three models more than 10 percentage points different.
1) PredictWise and Upshot both have 8 seed Oregon winning, slightly, but FiveThirtyEight has them at just 41%. PredictWise and FiveThirtyEight have 11 seed Texas winning, slightly, but Upshot has them at 42%.
2) All three methods have 10 Ohio State favored over VCU. Besides Texas, those are the only two double-digit teams favored. 11 seed Ole Miss is 40% to win and 10 seed Davidson is 43% to win; both strong upset potential.
DavidMRothschild on March 19, 2015 @ 9:04AM
Here are the pre-tournament market-based predictions for the 2015.
This data is driven by a mix of Betfair (prediction market) and bookie data. Step 1: construct prices from the back, lay, and last transaction odds, in the Betfair order book or, when not available, the lowest odds to buy from a major bookie. For Betfair data we take the average of the cheapest cost to buy a marginal share and the highest price to sell a marginal share, unless the differential is too large or does not exist. Step 2: correct for historical bias and increased uncertainty in constructed prices near $0 or $1. We raise all of the constructed prices to a pre-set value depending on the domain. Step 3: normalized to equal 100% for any mutually exclusive set of outcomes.
DavidMRothschild on March 17, 2015 @ 3:25PM
Oscar Night 2015 - Why I am stoked PredictWise got 20 of 24 (not 24 of 24) Oscar predictions “right”
DavidMRothschild on February 25, 2015 @ 2:14PM
Our Oscar predictions have been 19 for 24, 21 for 24, and 20 for 24 over the last three years, in the binary outcome space (i.e., the most likely candidate won the Oscar). Of the 12 “misses” 11 have been the second most likely and one has been the third most likely. But, our predictions are not probabilities for a reason; if we only cared about which candidate was the most likely and not how likely, we would not bother calibrating the difference!
What we are most proud of is the calibration of the Oscar predictions. In the 72 categories (24 per year) we have forecasted in the last three years, the average forecast for the leading candidate was 82%. Thus, on average, we expected to “win” a category 82% of the time and “lose” a category 18% of the time. Thus, 0.82*72 = 59 “wins” and 0.18*72 = 13 “losses” in expectation. Our 60 “wins” is pretty well calibrated!
DavidMRothschild on February 22, 2015 @ 9:35PM
The most updated outcome with Oscar eve predictions (which were posted at 1 PM ET on Oscar Day):
DavidMRothschild on February 22, 2015 @ 12:49PM
12:06 AM ET: 20 for 24 with Birdman's win!!! Another huge victory for prediction markets. Perfectly calibrated with average 82% for most likely candidate in the 24 catagories = expected outcome of 20 wins. And, a prediction markets did a great job in raising probability of victory of Birdman to 90% as Oscar night unfolded ...
11:56 PM ET: With Actor Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything) and Actress Julianne Moore (Still Alice) both winning, we are 19 for 23 with just one to go!
11:43 PM ET: The markets were increasingly convinced as the night progressed and it happend ... Birdman's Alexandro G Inarritu take the Director award! Brings us 17 of 21 with just 3 to go ...
11:35 PM ET: OK - now 16 of 20 with the Imitation Game's win for Adapted Screenplay, but another tight loss for Original Screenplay where had Grand Budapest Hotel, but Birdman second ...
DavidMRothschild on January 12, 2015 @ 7:03AM
As promised we got 8 of 10 major movie categories binary correct at the Golden Globes. Boyhood took home its three statues, but Birdman came up short with 2 of 3 excepted wins. The surprise winners, The Grand Budapest Hotel for Best Picture (comedy or musical) and Amy Adams in Big Eyes for Best Actress (comedy or musical), were both our second most likely choices.